Modeling of mango production in Pakistan.
Qureshi M. N., Bilal M., Ayyub R. M., Samia Ayyub
Author Affiliation: Govt. Degree College, Sharaqpur, Pakistan.
Science International (Lahore) 26 : 1227-1231
Abstract : A study of mango production in Pakistan has been carried out in this research. The forecast model has been developed for the mango production in Pakistan. The data for this study was obtained from 50-Years of Pakistan in statistics volume (1947-2012) [1], Economic Survey of Pakistan [9], Agriculture Statistics of Pakistan and Hydrological & Metrological Department of Weather Bureau Punjab. Three explanatory variables (Area, Temperature and rainfall) have been included in the model due to their practical significance.Mango is an important fruit of the country. All the provinces have their share in the total production of this fruit across the country. In this paper, ARIMA-X model has been fitted to forecast the mango production. The best model has been selected by comparing the estimates of the coefficients in the ARIMA-X models to ensure that the process is stationary/invertible, the standard error of regression, log-likelihood, Akaike information criterion (AIC) & Schwarz information criterion (SIC) and Durbin-Watson test statistic. Different types of diagnostic checks have been applied on the residuals to ensure the adequacy of the estimated models.