Late 20th century warming in a coastal horticultural region and its effects on tree phenology.
Olesen T.
Author Affiliation: Centre for Tropical Horticulture, I&I NSW, Alstonville, NSW, Australia.
New Zealand Journal of Crop and Horticultural Science 39 : 119-129
Abstract : Temperature records (1963 2009) from Alstonville, northern New South Wales, Australia, were examined for long-term trends using two methods: annual smoothing using a sine curve; and temperature-based phenological models applied to different parts of the year. Both methods indicated strong seasonality in warming, with winters increasing by 1.5°C over the period, but summers largely unchanged. Estimates of spring custard apple flower development time decreased by c. 13 days (20%) from 1963/64 2008/09; estimates of autumn litchi flush development decreased by c. 8 days (7%); estimates of winter macadamia flush development decreased by c. 17 days (12%) but summer flush development was not affected; and estimates of mango fruit development decreased by c. 12-16 days (7-8%) depending on variety.